Insights
Analysis with the receipts.
Long-form analysis, methodology pieces, and honest backtests from the WorldSportsXAI editorial team.
MethodologyMay 9, 2026 · 7 min read
Why a 1997 statistics paper still beats the experts at football scorelines
Mark Dixon and Stuart Coles fixed a small but ugly hole in the Poisson model of football, and 28 years later we still haven't found a better starting point.
Read article →AnalysisMay 8, 2026 · 8 min read
Argentina at 26%: what the consensus markets are missing about the defending champions
The model has Argentina as a clear favorite. The prediction markets disagree by 17 percentage points. We dug through the last 20 internationals to see who is right.
Read article →BacktestMay 7, 2026 · 6 min read
What 128 World Cup matches told us about the limits of our model
The Dixon-Coles model beats a uniform baseline by 7 percentage points across two World Cups. That sounds good. Here is what it actually means — and where the model still fails.
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